Современное состояние углеродной энергетики

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Abstract

На основе данных научных центров и результатов долгосрочных научных проектов проанализированы тепловое состояние Земли и глобальные процессы, протекающие в атмосфере и на поверхности. Анализ выполнен в форме числовых оценок, и на их основе построена физическая картина глобальных процессов с участием углерода и углекислого газа. Показано, что парниковый эффект за счет антропогенного углекислого газа, инжектируемого в атмосферу, не является главной причиной наблюдаемого в последние десятилетия роста глобальной температуры, который в свою очередь мал по сравнению с изменениями в прошлом. Рост концентрации углекислого газа в атмосфере при ее современных значениях не влияет на здоровье человека, но увеличивает эффективность фотосинтеза, так что урожаи сельскохозяйственных культур за индустриальный период выросли в полтора раза. Истощение ресурсов ископаемых газа и нефти в этом веке делает актуальной задачу производства синтетического жидкого и газообразного топлива из угля. Показано, что замена метана как топлива водородом наряду с низкой эффективностью ведет также к большим рискам при массовом использовании.

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Б. М. Смирнов

Объединенный институт высоких температур РАН

Author for correspondence.
Email: bmsmirnov@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Москва

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Supplementary files

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2. 1. Annual global energy production: 1 – total, 2 – as a result of burning of combustible minerals [7].

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3. 2. Annual global energy production from combustible minerals [7]: 1 – oil, 2 – coal, 3 – gas.

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4. 3. The share of carbon energy in total energy production [7].

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5. 4. The share of various combustible minerals in energy production within the framework of carbon energy [7]: 1 – oil, 2 – coal, 3 – gas.

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6. Fig. 5. The concentration of carbon dioxide molecules in the Earth's atmosphere expressed in ppm according to monitoring performed at the Manua Loa Observatory, averaged over a month and a year over the entire lifetime of the observatory (a) and over the last five years (b) [16].

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7. 6. Annual increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide molecules in the atmosphere at present [17].

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8. Fig. 7. The share of carbon that, after extraction from the Earth's interior in the form of combustible fossils, passes into atmospheric carbon dioxide, followed by transfer to the atmosphere and biomass; carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere relate to the corresponding decade and to 2018 [10, 11].

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9. 8. The simplified nature of the evolution of global temperature in recent decades as a result of the exclusion of fluctuations [12].

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10. 9. The ratio of the partial radiation flux ∆Jω(CO2) produced by carbon dioxide molecules to the total radiation flux: (a) is the area of the lower absorption band of carbon dioxide molecules; (b), (c) are the absorption frequency bands used in carbon dioxide lasers.

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11. 10. Explosion of the Hindenburg airship in New York [48].

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