Forecast of Modulation of Cosmic Rays with Rigidity of 10 GV in the 25th Solar Activity Cycle

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Abstract

Based on a forecast of solar activity parameters and the model developed by the authors for modulation of Galactic cosmic rays, we forecasted cosmic ray variations in the 25th solar activity cycle. The cosmic ray flux forecast is based on correlation with the number of sunspots (single-parameter model) or with a set of solar (mainly magnetic) parameters (multiparameter model). The forecast for the number of sunspots was taken from published data; the forecast for other solar parameters was done in the study. It is shown that variations in cosmic rays over three years of the current 25th cycle, in general, do not contradict the forecasts and indicate that the 25th solar activity cycle is expected to be slightly more active compared to the 24th.

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About the authors

V. G. Yanke

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Author for correspondence.
Email: yanke@izmiran.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7098-9094
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

A. V. Belov

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Email: yanke@izmiran.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1834-3285
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

R. T. Gushchina

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Email: yanke@izmiran.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5247-7404
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

P. G. Kobelev

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Email: kobelev@izmiran.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9727-4395
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

L. A. Trefilova

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Email: yanke@izmiran.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2563-5550
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. The spread of the predicted maximum number of sunspots for the 25th solar cycle. Squares are the predicted values according to NOAA/NASA data [NASA/NOAA, 2019] and the work of [Pesnell et al., 2018].

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3. Fig. 2. Observed (average monthly and 13-month smoothed for the 23rd and 24th cycles) and predicted sunspot numbers from [NASA/NOAA, 2019] and [Pesnell et al., 2018]. Points are the average values of the number of sunspots obtained for the entire observation period.

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4. Fig. 3. Measured (or calculated) and predicted by empirical (25th cycle) and ARIMA methods (25th and 26th cycles) CA parameters.

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5. Fig. 4. The scattering diagram and the regression line of the system of linear equations (2).

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6. Fig. 5. Contribution to the variation of cosmic rays of various parameters of solar activity of the multiparametric model of variations (upper panel) and the long-term course of the observed and simulated variations and their discrepancy (lower panel). The calculated values are shown on the left side of each panel, and the predicted contribution values of various factors for the 25th CA cycle (gray fill) are shown on the right side.

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7. Fig. 6. Comparison of the variations of galactic cosmic rays observed before July 2023 and the variations predicted by different models for the 25th CA cycle. The right scale shows the intensities of galactic CL for various phases of CA.

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