Identification of Possible Short-Term Ionospheric Earthquake Precursors for Seismic Events with Intermediate Hypocentrals Depths by Measuring the Standard Parameters of the Mid-Latitude Es Layer

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Abstract

Changes in deviations from the background values of the parameters of the sporadic E ionosphere (Es) are studied: the effective (virtual) height h’Es and limiting reflection frequency (foEs). Basically, the analysis was carried based on hourly measurement data from several Japanese ground stations for vertical sounding of the ionosphere in order to identify possible short-term ionospheric earthquake precursors with intermediate (from 60 to 300 km) hypocentral depths. All known events (12 earthquakes, from 1969 to 2022) are considered for which the necessary ionospheric data in the Japan region and magnitudes (M) ranging from 6.5 to 7.6 are available. From coincidence of the maxima in changes in the considered Es characteristics on the same day at pairs of stations separated by hundreds of kilometers, the time of appearance of possible ionospheric earthquake precursors was recorded. According to the ionospheric data available during the preparation period for the studied earthquakes, a tendency has been identified according to which the time the moment of the main influence is anticipated depends on the magnitude of the impending earthquake. Similarities and differences in the responses of the ionosphere to the preparation of surface (crustal) earthquakes and earthquakes with an intermediate hypocentral depth are revealed. Another tendency is also revealed: earlier appearance of the identified earthquake precursors with increasing hypocentral depth for earthquakes with an intermediate hypocentral depth at the same distances from the epicenter to the observation point.

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About the authors

L. P. Korsunova

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Author for correspondence.
Email: lpkors@rambler.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

V. V. Hegai

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation

Email: lpkors@rambler.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, Troitsk

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Hourly variations of ∆Hʹes (solid lines with dots) at Paratunka station (upper panel) and Wakkanai station (lower panel) before the earthquake on 30.01.2016 with an intermediate hearth depth of hG = 161 km and magnitude M = 7.2. Line breaks mean no data. Probable KIPZ are marked with a dark fill and highlighted with an ellipse. The epicentral distances (Re) to the corresponding ionospheric station are shown in the figure below the station names.

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3. Fig. 2. Dependences of logarithms of the values of ΔTH'ES (day) and logarithms of products of ΔTH'ES×R (R is the epicentral distance to the ionospheric station in km) for possible KIPZ observed at Kokubunji station (left panels) and Wakkanai station (right panels) on magnitudes (M) of the considered intermediate earthquakes, constructed according to data from these stations (points). The solid lines show the regression lines obtained by the least squares method, and the dotted lines indicate the values of the standard errors of these regressions (the spread of the dependent variable around the regression line). The correlation coefficient (p) is indicated next to the equation of each regression.

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4. Fig. 3. Linear regressions (solid lines) for logarithms of products ΔTH'ES×Re (Re is the epicentral distance to the ionospheric station in km, ΔTH'ES — in days) for possible KIPZ observed at Kokubunji station (left panels, large black dots) and Wakkanai station (right panels, black “squares”) depending on the depths of the hypocenters of the foci (hG) of the considered intermediate earthquakes, constructed according to the data of these stations. Regression lines are obtained by the least squares method, and dashed lines indicate the values of the standard errors of these regressions (the spread of the dependent variable around the regression line). The correlation coefficient (p) and the standard error of the regression (S) are indicated under the equation of each regression.

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5. Fig. 4. The same as Fig. 3, but for the totality of all data on intermediate earthquakes (data from Kokubunji station — large dots, Wakkanai station — black “squares”, from Table. 2 works [Mikhailov, 2007] — six-pointed stars).

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