Evaluating the Effectiveness of Using Integral Daily Es Characteristics to Identify Short-Term Ionospheric Precursors of Strong Earthquakes

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Abstract

Day-to-day variations of deviations of integral daily characteristics of the sporadic E layer in different
seasons in 1987, 1996, 2003–2004, and 2014 from the reference values are investigated. The analysis is
conducted based on hourly measurements from Japanese ground-based vertical ionospheric sounding stations
in order to identify possible short-term ionospheric precursors of crustal (surface) earthquakes with
magnitudes M ≥ 6.5 under real observational conditions. Using the coincidence of the maxima in the variations
of the considered Es characteristics at the same day on pairs of stations located hundreds of kilometers
from each other, 12 possible ionospheric earthquake precursors (true alarms) and 22 false alarms, which are
not followed by earthquakes of the specified range in different seasons of 1987, 1996, and 2003–2004, were
found. The efficiency of identifying possible short-term ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes is
determined by the chosen method based on Hanssen–Kuipers score (Rscore), which turned out to be 0.82 for
the specified time periods. It is concluded that the proposed methodology for identifying short-term ionospheric
precursors of strong earthquakes can be used in real conditions

About the authors

L. P. Korsunova

Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: lpkors@rambler.ru
Moscow, Russia

V. V. Khegai

Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: hegai@izmiran.ru
Moscow, Russia

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