Forecast of geomagnetic and solar activity based on macroscopic nonlocal correlations

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A series of long-term experiments to study macroscopic nonlocal correlations between random dissipative heliogeophysical processes and probe processes in detectors revealed important properties of macroscopic entanglement predicted by absorber electrodynamics. These correlations have retarded and advanced components. The advanced correlation corresponds to time-reversed causality (due to the randomness of the processes, this does not lead to the well-known paradoxes). Solar as well as geomagnetic activity turned out to be the dominant global source processes causing the detector response. Advanced correlations make it possible to forecast the random components of these processes. The practical feasibility of such forecasts with a lead time of several months and with an accuracy sufficient for all practical purposes has been demonstrated.

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作者简介

S. Korotaev

Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: korotaev@gemrc.ru

Geoelectromagnetic Research Centre

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, Troitsk

V. Serdyuk

Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS

Email: korotaev@gemrc.ru

Geoelectromagnetic Research Centre

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, Troitsk

E. Kiktenko

Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS

Email: korotaev@gemrc.ru

Geoelectromagnetic Research Centre

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, Troitsk

I. Popova

Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS

Email: korotaev@gemrc.ru

Geoelectromagnetic Research Centre

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, Troitsk

N. Budnev

Irkutsk State University

Email: korotaev@gemrc.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Irkutsk

J. Gorohov

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation RAS

Email: korotaev@gemrc.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, Troitsk

参考

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2. Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of the detector device. C - housing (wall thickness 20 mm), D - dewar, V - vessel with electrolyte, E - electrodes (internal device is not shown), T - temperature sensor. Materials: hatching - caprolon, double hatching - ebonite, dots - air, unshaded gap - vacuum.

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3. Fig. 2. Baikal deep-water installation. 1 - anchor; 2 - cable-tether; 3 - electronics unit; 4 - buoy; 5 - submerged buoy; I, II - upper electrode detector; III, IV - lower electrode detector.

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4. Fig. 3. Independence and causality functions of the detector signal U and solar radiation flux R. τ<0 correspond to the delay of U relative to R, τ>0 - advance.

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5. Fig. 4. Correlation function of the detector signal U and solar radio flux R, τ<0 correspond to the lag of U relative to R, τ>0 - advance.

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6. Fig. 5.Correlation function of the detector signal U and geomagnetic activity Dst, τ<0 corresponds to the lag of U relative to Dst, τ>0 - to the advance.

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7. Fig. 6. Forecast of solar activity with a fixed advance of 35 days (thin line) compared to the actual curve (bold line). The beginning of time counting is March 20, 1995. The mean-square error of the forecast is 0.88-10-22 W m-2 Hz-1.

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8. Fig. 7. Forecast of geomagnetic activity with a fixed advance of 35 days (thin line) compared to the actual curve (bold line). Beginning of the time countdown on September 19, 1995. The mean-square error of the forecast is 1.7 nTl.

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9. Fig. 8.Forecast of solar activity with a fixed advance of 123 days (thin line) compared to the actual curve (bold line). The beginning of the time reference is February 20, 2003. The mean-square error of the forecast is 2.9-10-22 W m-2 Hz-1.

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10. Fig. 9. Forecast of geomagnetic activity with an advance of 123 days (thin line) compared to the actual curve (bold line). The beginning of time counting (in days) is February 20, 2003. The mean-square error of the forecast is 2.0 nTl.

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11. Fig. 10.The signal of the Ut detector qualitatively predicts the variation of solar activity R (relative to the average level) with an advance of 180 days.The beginning of the time countdown is November 4, 2016.

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12. Fig. 11.The signal of the Ub detector qualitatively predicts the variation of geomagnetic activity Dst (relative to the average level) with an advance of 238 days.

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13. Fig. 12. Prediction of Dst by the current regression method with a fixed advance time of 329 days (thin line) compared to the actual curve (bold line). The RMS error of the prediction is 0.99 nTL.

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14. Fig. 13. Prediction of Dst using the current pulse transient response method with a fixed advance time of 329 days (thin line) versus the actual curve (bold line).The RMS error of the prediction is 0.40 nTL.

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15. Fig. 14: Prediction of Dst by the current neural network method with a fixed advance of 329 days (thin line) versus the actual curve (bold line).RMS error of the prediction is 0.29 nTl.

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