A Probabilistic Approach to Design of Steel Trusses with Incomplete Statistical Data

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Abstract

One of the promising directions of development of structural design standards is the transition to full probabilistic methods of structural design for a given target reliability level. For estimation of the reliability index, effective accounting and modeling of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of data is necessary. The article describes a probabilistic approach to the design of steel truss elements taking into account incomplete statistical data. This approach allows giving an estimate of the failure probability for a steel truss under uncertainty data. The failure probability presented in the form of an interval that will narrow as additional statistical data about loads, material properties, geometric imperfections, etc. grows. To solve this problem, the article uses two numerical approaches to calculate the failure probability: discretization of p-boxes into Dempster-Shafer structures and the interval Monte Carlo (IMC) method. The use of the presented approach in practice also allows performing a comparative evaluation of different technical and economic solutions of steel trusses based on the reliability factor.

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About the authors

A. A. Solovieva

Vologda State University

Author for correspondence.
Email: solovevaaa@vogu35.ru

Postgraduate Student

Russian Federation, 15, Lenina Street, 160000, Vologda

V. A. Smirnov

Scientific-Research Institute of Building Physics of RAACS; National Research Moscow State University of Civil Engineering

Email: belohvost@list.ru

Candidate of Sciences (Engineering)

Russian Federation, 21, Lokomotivniy Driveway, Moscow, 127238; 26, Yaroslavskoe Highway, Moscow, 129337

S. A. Soloviev

Vologda State University

Email: solovevsa@vogu35.ru

Candidate of Sciences (Engineering)

Russian Federation, 15, Lenina Street, 160000, Vologda

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