The phase shift between the global surface temperature and the CO2 content in the atmosphere according to simulations with an ensemble of CMIP6 models

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Abstract

The phase shifts between the global surface temperature T and the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere q obtained in numerical experiments with models of the Earth climate system of the CMIP6 project (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 6) for the period 1850–2014 are analyzed. It was found that the sign of the phase shift between q and T depends not only on the analyzed time interval, but also on the method of processing the initial series. The initial q series (with a filtered annual cycle) leads in phase the corresponding T series for most models and time intervals. The first differences (inter-monthly increments) for the q series lag in phase the corresponding first differences for the T series by about 10 months with an adequate reproduction of the results obtained by analyzing observational data for recent decades. This means that such delay cannot be an argument against the generally accepted theory of global warming, which links the current increase in temperature with the dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

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About the authors

K. E. Muryshev

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: kmuryshev@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

A. V. Eliseev

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences; Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences; Kazan Federal University

Email: kmuryshev@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow; Moscow; Kazan

I. I. Mokhov

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)

Email: kmuryshev@mail.ru

Academician of the RAS

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow; Dolgoprudniy

A. V. Timazhev

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: kmuryshev@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

G. P. Klimovich

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: kmuryshev@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Correlation function between the T and q series with filtered annual variation, obtained in numerical calculations with the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model for the period 1850‒2014 under the esm-hist scenario.

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3. Fig. 2. Lag statistics for the original series for global surface temperature T and atmospheric CO2 content q obtained in numerical experiments with CMIP6 models (positive values ​​– T is ahead of q, negative values ​​– q is ahead of T) under the esm-hist scenario for the time intervals 1850–2014 (light bars) and 1984–2014 (dark bars). The lines show the 99% uncertainty intervals.

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4. Fig. 3. Lag statistics for the first difference series for global surface temperature T and atmospheric CO2 content q obtained in numerical experiments with CMIP6 models (positive values ​​– T is ahead of q, negative values ​​– q is ahead of T) under the esm-hist scenario for the time intervals 1850–2014 (light bars) and 1984–2014 (dark bars). The lines show the 95% and 99% uncertainty intervals.

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5. Fig. 4. Series q’ (black lines) and T’ (gray lines) based on calculations with the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model under the esm-hist scenario for the period 1984–2014. The gradient fill marks episodes that demonstrate a lag in changes in q relative to changes in T.

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